Global fuel buffers thin as Australian prices stay elevated
Australian fuel leaders say global stockpiles that buffered the Iran war are thinning, but official fuel statistics still show supply arriving and reserves holding at healthy levels.
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Global buffers continue to shrink
Australian fuel companies are warning that the stockpiles of crude oil and refined fuels that have helped shield motorists from the Iran war are being steadily depleted, increasing the risk of steeper price rises at service stations if international inventories keep tightening. The Age reports that the conflict has already drained global inventories by 507 million barrels, or about 2.8 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency, and that the support once provided by emergency releases and higher output in the Americas is no longer as strong as it was. Malcolm Roberts, who heads the Australian Institute of Petroleum, told The Age that “the buffers are no longer there to the same degree”. 71
What is driving the pressure on prices
The Age says the immediate strain comes from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the suspension of a major Saudi crude pipeline used to bypass attacks in that waterway, which has removed another route for oil to reach global customers. The ABC reported on 15 September that attacks on the East-West pipeline had pushed Brent above US$107 a barrel and Tapis to US$110, with NRMA saying the gap between wholesale and retail fuel prices was then effectively non-existent. Westpac IQ said on 16 September that Brent averaged US$87.1 a barrel in August, up 5 per cent month on month, and that renewed Middle East tensions, Saudi export disruptions and attacks on Russian refining capacity were all supporting higher oil and refined product prices. 736
Supply position in Australia
Despite the tighter global market, the Fuel Plan website says fuel continues to arrive in Australia in the quantities and at the frequency expected, with multiple supplier countries still refining and exporting fuel and the government working with industry to secure more. It says sufficient forward orders are scheduled to arrive in the next four weeks, domestic refining is continuing and the maintenance impact at the Lytton refinery is covered by already secured supply sources. The same site says stocks remain healthy, with petrol above average and diesel and jet fuel similar to pre-conflict long-term averages, while The Age reports Australian industry leaders still see the risk of an actual supply shortage in Australia as minimal. 41
Prices, reserves and current market conditions
Fuel Plan data published on 18 September and based on retail prices for 16 September shows average fuel at $2.24 a litre for petrol and $2.68 for diesel across the five largest cities, with Sydney at $2.25 and $2.68, Melbourne at $2.24 and $2.70, Brisbane at $2.24 and $2.72, Adelaide at $2.18 and $2.68, and Perth at $2.30 and $2.62. The same page says international benchmark prices for the week to 16 September were US$132 a barrel for Brent crude and US$185 for Singapore Gasoil, and that more than 3.6 billion litres of crude, diesel, jet and petrol are scheduled to arrive from overseas in the next four weeks. Fuel Plan also lists national days of coverage under the mandatory stockholding obligation at 41 days for petrol, 31 for diesel and 32 for jet fuel on 15 September. The NRMA, as reported by My NRMA on 22 September, said Sydney regular unleaded had reached 237.8 cents a litre and diesel 286.1 cents, and that prices were forecast to keep rising in the following week. 412
Context from industry leaders
The Age says Australian fuel leaders are increasingly concerned by how quickly global reserves are diminishing, while also emphasising that domestic suppliers have been able to maintain contracted imports and secure extra cargoes when needed. Roberts told The Age that importers have diversified supply chains across five continents and that government underwriting has helped secure available cargoes, with more than a month’s worth of petrol and diesel still in reserve. Westpac IQ said the broader commodity market had re-priced on geopolitical risk, and the LinkedIn fuel market update from IOR said on 5 September that escalating Middle East tensions and attacks on Russian energy infrastructure were tightening global fuel supplies, increasing competition for diesel cargoes and pushing freight costs higher. 765
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- Fuel price fears for Australia as global buffers dry upRole not assessedSource extract saved
Why these labels?Fuel price fears for Australia as global buffers dry up
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Cited in 3 paragraphs: Global buffers continue to shrink; Supply position in Australia; Prices, reserves and current market conditions.
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Cited in 2 paragraphs: Supply position in Australia; Prices, reserves and current market conditions.
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Cited in 2 paragraphs: What is driving the pressure on prices; Context from industry leaders.
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