Antonelli on the brink as Formula 1 heads to high-altitude Mexico City

Antonelli within two points of a historic title

Formula 1 arrives in Mexico City this weekend with Kimi Antonelli positioned to become the sport's youngest ever world champion at 20 years old. The Mercedes driver won the United States Grand Prix in Austin to move 123 points clear of teammate and nearest challenger George Russell, and 124 points ahead of Ferrari's Lewis Hamilton, according to Sky Sports. Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris were officially eliminated from championship contention in Austin, leaving Russell and Hamilton as the only drivers who can technically stop Antonelli. ⁶

Sky Sports sets out the permutations plainly: Antonelli becomes champion if he finishes ninth or better, or if Russell and Hamilton fail to win the race. He needs only two points, or simply not to be outscored by Russell by 24 points or Hamilton by 25. With four races remaining after Mexico and a maximum of 100 points still to play for, Sky Sports notes that in practice either Russell or Hamilton would need to win all five remaining races while Antonelli failed to score two points. ⁶

Mercedes also has its first mathematical chance to clinch the Constructors' Championship in Mexico, but Sky Sports notes it is a tall order: the team leads Ferrari by 133 points and would need to outscore the Italians by 39 this weekend, likely requiring a one-two finish and a poor Ferrari race. Sky Sports suggests the first realistic opportunity is the Sao Paulo Grand Prix next week, though Ferrari have outscored Mercedes at each of the last three race weekends. ⁶

The altitude test for F1's 2026 power units

The Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez sits roughly 2,200 to 2,240 metres above sea level, the highest-altitude circuit on the calendar, and Sunday will be the first Mexican Grand Prix contested under the new 2026 regulations. As GRANDE PREMIO explains, thinner air reduces aerodynamic downforce, weakens air-based cooling and forces the turbocharger to work harder to deliver intake pressure. ⁴⁷

GRANDE PREMIO details the regulatory shift: the 1.6-litre turbo V6 now produces approximately 400 kW combustion power, down from roughly 550-560 kW, while maximum electrical output rises from 120 kW to 350 kW with the MGU-H removed. That makes battery state of charge, energy recovery through the MGU-K and deployment strategy central to lap performance. The outlet notes the MGU-K's electrical output is not directly reduced by altitude, but battery and power electronics still depend on cooling that thinner air makes harder. ⁷

The energy-management framework itself has also evolved during the season. GRANDE PREMIO reports that the FIA refined the 2026 regulations to improve energy management, including a reduction in the maximum qualifying recharge allowance from 8 MJ to 7 MJ under the revised parameters, alongside different deployment provisions for acceleration zones and other portions of the lap. Those changes aim to reduce excessive energy harvesting and encourage more consistent flat-out driving, with their practical effect at Mexico depending on event-specific parameters and each team's approach. ⁷

All five manufacturers - Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull-Ford, Honda and Audi - face this environment for the first time. GRANDE PREMIO cautions that there is not enough public evidence to establish which will benefit most before the cars run, saying claims of a clear advantage should wait for verified data from practice and qualifying. Sky Sports adds that teams traditionally run high-downforce packages at Mexico, where drivers frequently report sliding despite large wings, and the 2026 active aerodynamics add a further variable. ⁴⁷

The championship leader's task is complicated by the venue. GRANDE PREMIO, which lists Antonelli on 365 points ahead of Russell on 242 and Hamilton on 241, writes that Mercedes cannot simply assume it will reproduce its Austin performance, with reliable cooling and efficient electrical management necessary to complete the 71-lap race. Russell, meanwhile, arrives seeking recovery from a difficult Austin weekend in which he finished eighth and admitted he could not explain his lack of pace. ⁷

McLaren keeps developing the MCL40 despite season-long struggles

McLaren plans further upgrades for its MCL40 in the closing stages of the season even as most rivals shift development to 2027 cars, according to Sky Sports reporting by Nigel Chiu. The team has not finished on the podium in the last four races, despite bringing new parts in that period. In Austin, Norris qualified eighth and described the car as "easily the hardest car I've ever driven in my life", before running second late on with an alternative one-stop strategy but dropping to fifth behind Charles Leclerc, Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton. ³

Team principal Andrea Stella told Sky Sports there will be "some more stuff coming", but only across Brazil and Las Vegas: "Mexico there won't be very much." McLaren's own press release, cited by Sky Sports, confirms the car remains essentially unchanged for this weekend after the successful introduction of front and rear corner changes in Austin, with a small selection of parts through its development pathway and further developments from the Sao Paulo race onward. ³

Norris identified slow-speed corners as a persistent weakness, telling Sky Sports the team lost almost three tenths a lap in Austin in those sections. Sky Sports commentator Anthony Davidson suggested McLaren suits high-grip surfaces and medium-to-high-speed corners like Budapest, Zandvoort and Madrid, noting that Mexico is a track Norris likes and where he dominated last year's race. Reigning champion Norris won the 2025 Mexico City Grand Prix. ³⁴

Rookie-heavy first practice and the weekend schedule

Ten drivers will sit out first practice on Friday as teams use the non-street, non-Sprint venue to fulfil the season-long requirement to run a rookie in at least two sessions per car, Sky Sports reports. Among the headline names, Verstappen hands his Red Bull to Ayumu Iwasa, Norris gives way to Formula 2 champion Leonardo Fornaroli, and Russell is replaced by Mercedes reserve Frederik Vesti. Only Ferrari will run both full-time drivers in the opening session. ⁵

Sky Sports also highlights British 18-year-old Freddie Slater, who makes his Formula 1 practice debut for Audi in Gabriel Bortoleto's car. The 2026 Formula 3 runner-up, the first signee to the Audi Driver Development Programme, will also practice at the Sao Paulo Grand Prix. Audi racing director Allan McNish said the appearances would give him "valuable experience of a Formula 1 race weekend". Racing Bulls' Nikola Tsolov, Alpine's Gabriele Mini, Haas' Ryo Hirakawa, Williams' Luke Browning, Aston Martin's Jak Crawford and Cadillac's Colton Herta complete the rookie line-up. ⁵

The official Formula 1 timetable confirms first practice at 12:30 local time on Friday, October 30, second practice at 16:00, third practice at 11:30 on Saturday, qualifying at 15:00 and the 71-lap Grand Prix at 14:00 local time on Sunday, November 1. Sky Sports notes Mexico City is 6 hours behind UTC, putting the race at 8pm UK time. The FIA has also published the press-conference schedule: Thursday's driver line-up includes Russell, Sergio Perez, Leclerc and Alex Albon, with team principals Ayao Komatsu, Laurent Mekies and James Vowles speaking Friday. ²⁴¹

Weather, overtaking and the road ahead

Sky Sports forecasts a dry and hot weekend in Mexico City with no rain expected and temperatures reaching 27C for qualifying and the race. The outlet notes overtaking is possible with long straights into Turn 1 and Turn 4, the scene of Verstappen's battles with Norris in 2024, and that Verstappen has won at the venue a record five times. ⁴

After Mexico, four races remain: Brazil on November 6-8, Las Vegas on November 20-22, Qatar on November 27-29 and Abu Dhabi on December 4-6, per Sky Sports. GRANDE PREMIO frames the weekend as a broader data-gathering opportunity for all five power-unit manufacturers, whose first-generation 2026 designs face conditions unlike any other circuit on the calendar. ³⁷