Australian truck sales fall 14.8 per cent in third quarter as downturn deepens

Q3 confirms a deepening downturn

Australia's new truck and heavy van market remained subdued through the third quarter of 2026, with deliveries falling 14.8 per cent on the same period last year. Truck Industry Council (TIC) data, reported by AutoTalk Australia, shows 9707 trucks and vans were sold between July and September — the sixth-strongest third quarter on record, but 2849 vehicles below the market's 2024 peak. September itself was down 13.3 per cent year on year to 3362 vehicles, with declines recorded across every truck and van segment. ¹

The nine-month picture is equally soft. A total of 29,233 units were delivered in the first nine months of 2026, down 13.3 per cent or 4494 vehicles on the corresponding period last year, according to the TIC figures published by AutoTalk. That extends a decline evident all year: the first half closed at 19,526 units, down 13.5 per cent on the same period in 2025, per carsales for Business, and July alone was down just over eight per cent year on year, per TruckandBus. ¹²⁴

McMullan points to living costs, diesel and rates

TIC chief executive Tony McMullan says the market had already been weakening during 2025 and that the trend has continued throughout this year. 'The continued downturn in new truck sales is no doubt affected by the continued high cost of living, that is resulting in less consumer spending on goods,' McMullan says, as quoted by AutoTalk. He adds that significantly increased diesel prices, driven by continued global unrest, along with further Australian interest rate rises, have increased operator costs and left operators with less capital to invest in new trucks, trailers and other equipment. ¹

On the outlook, McMullan says the council does not anticipate much relief from those factors for the remainder of 2026, but remains optimistic for a return to stronger new truck sales in 2027. TruckandBus reports, however, that many in the industry believe a 2027 revival forecast may be a little optimistic, with little impetus in the market to break the sales slide. ¹⁴

Heavy-duty holds up best, medium-duty worst hit

Heavy-duty trucks remained the most resilient segment through the quarter. Third-quarter heavy-duty sales fell 4.2 per cent year on year, September deliveries dropped 7.9 per cent to 1124 trucks, and the year-to-date tally of 9733 units is down 7.9 per cent or 830 units, according to the TIC data reported by AutoTalk. That continues a pattern seen all year: carsales for Business noted heavy-duty year-on-year declines stayed in single digits throughout the second quarter, with Kenworth leading the segment and Volvo closing to within 12 units in June (237 deliveries to Kenworth's 249). ¹²

Medium-duty recorded the largest year-to-date decline. Sales fell 22.8 per cent to 1285 trucks during the third quarter, September registrations declined 10 per cent, and only 3602 medium-duty trucks were delivered in the first nine months — down 31.7 per cent or 1674 units, per the TIC figures published by AutoTalk. carsales for Business has described the segment's contraction as structural rather than seasonal, with operators increasingly choosing heavy-duty trucks for higher-capacity work or light-duty trucks for urban runs. Isuzu dominates the segment, taking a 62.3 per cent share of July's 424 medium-duty registrations, per TruckandBus. ¹²⁴

Light-duty truck sales dropped 29 per cent to 2861 units in the third quarter, September deliveries were down 19.8 per cent, and the year-to-date result fell 13.9 per cent to 8534 trucks. The light-duty van segment fared comparatively best: third-quarter van sales were down 7.8 per cent, September deliveries fell 13.2 per cent, and the nine-month total of 7364 vans is down 7.7 per cent year on year, per the TIC data reported by AutoTalk. ¹

July brand results: Japanese leaders slide, Fuso bucks the trend

TruckandBus, reporting the TIC's July T-Mark figures, detailed the brand-level picture as the second half began. Market leader Isuzu registered 852 trucks in July, down 24 per cent or 258 units on its July 2025 result of 1072. Close rival Hino fell 26.5 per cent or 105 units to 291 trucks, a result TruckandBus attributes in part to the brand's well-publicised supply issues as well as the broader downturn. ⁴

Fuso was the notable mover, registering 284 trucks in July to close within six units of Hino and claim third overall, a 15 per cent rise on its July 2025 result. TruckandBus notes this came as Daimler prepares to offload its Fuso distributorship due to competition law requirements. Kenworth was fourth overall with 217 heavy-duty registrations, down 16.2 per cent, holding a 39-unit heavy-duty lead over Volvo, whose monthly total of 184 was just one truck down on its 2025 tally. In vans, Mercedes-Benz led with 276 Sprinter registrations against LDV's 215, and the van sector was the only category to grow in July, up 11.4 per cent to 850 units, per TruckandBus. ⁴

How the year has unfolded

The third-quarter slump contrasts with some cautious optimism earlier in the year. carsales for Business reported that the first quarter, while down on 2025's record pace, saw each month improve on the last — from 2464 deliveries in January to 3665 in March, the highest monthly total of 2026 at that point — with vans the most resilient segment and LDV even claiming the van top spot in February and March. February's van result was up 17.8 per cent year on year, bucking every other category's trend. ³

Momentum then built through the second quarter, per carsales for Business: April's 2871 deliveries marked the steepest monthly decline of the year at 16 per cent, before May and June recovered month on month, with June's end-of-financial-year rush delivering 4172 units — the strongest month of 2026 — at a 24.5 per cent lift on May. The year-on-year gap nonetheless held near 14.6 per cent, and the outlet observed at the time that some of the EOFY momentum could be expected to ease into the third quarter, a forecast the September quarter figures have borne out. ²