Chinese brands propping up a flatlining Australian new-car market, September 2026 VFACTS analysis shows

Marginal growth, but only with BYD and Geely counted

Australia's new-vehicle market grew by just 1.8 per cent in September 2026, slightly behind the 2.0 per cent year-to-date pace, according to figures released by the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries and the Electric Vehicle Council. However, analysis by CarExpert's Ben Zachariah found the headline growth rests almost entirely on two brands: BYD and Geely. Removing Geely — the month's greatest contributor, with explosive 870.3 per cent year-on-year growth and 4473 added vehicles — would have left the market down 2.0 per cent, while stripping out BYD alone would have produced a 1.2 per cent decline, not even counting BYD's premium brand Denza. ¹

Excluding both brands, CarExpert's analysis shows the September market would have contracted 5.2 per cent year-on-year. The pattern holds year to date: without BYD, sales would be down 2.2 per cent, and without Geely down 0.2 per cent — effectively flat at 0.03 per cent once Tesla sales are also removed. CarExpert reports that no other manufacturer came close to the positive impact BYD and Geely had on the figures, suggesting the data is masking underlying weakness in the broader market. ¹

China outsells Japan and Thailand combined

September also marked a country-of-origin milestone. Data released by the FCAI and EVC shows Australians bought 42,045 vehicles from China last month against 40,933 from Japan and Thailand combined, according to reporting published by 7NEWS. Japanese and Thai plants — sources of top sellers such as the Thai-built Ford Ranger and Toyota HiLux — had long dominated, and the same feat was first achieved in June 2026, when China-sourced vehicles totalled 55,331 sales against 50,395 for Japan and Thailand. ²

China-built vehicles now account for 38.9 per cent of the Australian new-car market, per the figures reported by 7NEWS, and the list of brands sourcing from China extends well beyond the local Chinese names to established marques including Mazda, Hyundai, Kia, BMW and Mini, with Nissan and Ford soon to follow. South Korea (9892 sales, down 5.0 per cent) and Germany (4309, down 1.7 per cent) rounded out the top five source countries. The figures exclude models such as the Tesla Model Y Performance and Polestar 3, which can be sourced from Germany or the United States. ²

A two-speed market: 75.2 per cent growth versus 15.1 per cent decline

The divergence between newcomer and established brands was stark in September. CarExpert reports that Chinese brands collectively grew their sales by 75.2 per cent year-on-year, while all other brands shrank by a combined 15.1 per cent. Mitsubishi posted the largest negative volume change, with 1968 fewer sales (down 41.5 per cent), while in percentage terms Subaru fared worst at minus 42.6 per cent (1494 fewer sales). Suzuki fell 39.3 per cent, Volkswagen declined 36.9 per cent and Nissan dropped 30.0 per cent, against a comparatively mild 3.5 per cent decline for market leader Toyota. ¹

Geely's dealership network has also expanded rapidly, reaching 100 dealerships in Australia in just 18 months, according to CarExpert — distribution capacity that underpins the brand's surging volumes. The brand sold only 5010 vehicles across all of 2025 in its first year on sale, per VFACTS-based reporting by carsales, making its current monthly four-figure deliveries a dramatic escalation. ¹⁴

How the market shifted earlier in 2026

September's pattern extends trends visible across 2026. The February 2026 VFACTS report showed the market down 2.7 per cent year-on-year to 94,131 deliveries, with electric vehicle sales up 95.9 per cent and Chinese-built vehicles up 50.5 per cent — the first month China led the country-of-origin rankings, a position the FCAI noted was historically unprecedented, per CarExpert's report at the time. Japanese-built sales fell 31.3 per cent in February as hybrid sales slumped, driven by an 83.6 per cent drop for the Toyota RAV4 during its generational transition. ⁵

The first half of 2026 showed the same two-speed dynamic, according to NRMA's half-year report on June VFACTS data: nearly all major marques declined, with Nissan (minus 32.8 per cent), Mitsubishi (minus 25.7 per cent), Subaru (minus 25.6 per cent) and Toyota (minus 24.4 per cent) among the hardest hit, while six Chinese brands recorded year-on-year increases of between 100 and 1000 per cent. Zeekr led with 5825 sales, up nearly 1300 per cent, and China overtook Japan as Australia's most prolific vehicle supplier for a half-year for the first time, with 175,151 units to Japan's 144,430. BYD finished second overall for the half with 52,335 sales behind Toyota's 95,141. ⁷

GoAuto's September Market Insight analysis, published on 14 September 2026 using August VFACTS/EVC data, framed the change as structural: Toyota, Ford, Kia, Mazda and Hyundai fell from a combined 47.6 per cent share in August 2025 to 39.2 per cent a year later, while BYD, GWM, MG, Geely and Chery climbed from roughly 16.4 per cent to 24.5 per cent. Including the wider field of Chinese newcomers and Chinese-owned LDV, Chinese brands accounted for around 31.5 per cent of August 2026 sales, up from approximately 18.3 per cent a year earlier, according to GoAuto. ⁶

From record 2025 to a widening Chinese presence

The September result follows a record 2025, in which more than 1.24 million new vehicles were sold in Australia for the first time, per FCAI figures cited by RACQ. Chinese brands sold 221,699 cars that year — about 18 per cent of sales, up from around 14 per cent in 2024 — with GWM (52,809), BYD (52,415) and MG (41,298) all cementing top-10 positions at the expense of Nissan, Subaru and Volkswagen. Cox Automotive Manheim market analyst Mike Costello told RACQ there were then 22 Chinese brand names sold in Australia, made by 11 companies, with brands and market share growing roughly tenfold since 2019. ³

carsales' VFACTS year-in-review placed Chinese-manufactured vehicles at approximately 20 per cent of 2025 sales, second only to Japan as a source country and ahead of Thailand, with BYD up 156.2 per cent and Chery up 176.8 per cent. BYD Australia COO Stephen Collins said the brand's growth had been genuine, driven by vehicles with world-leading battery-electric powertrains at prices suited to Australian families, in comments reported by carsales. More entrants were confirmed or planning Australian debuts for 2026, including Denza, Wey, Lepas, GAC, Forthing, Avatr, Firefly and iCaur. ⁴

Electrification and fuel prices accelerate the realignment

Underpinning the shift is a rapid change in powertrain preference. GoAuto reports that in August 2026 battery-electric vehicles almost trebled year-on-year to around 27,000 sales and 24.9 per cent market penetration — Australia's largest single propulsion category — while electrified vehicles collectively took 51.8 per cent of deliveries, the first majority on record, up from 30.2 per cent a year earlier. Petrol deliveries fell 32.6 per cent and diesel 22.5 per cent in August, while plug-in hybrids surged 171 per cent. GoAuto attributes the acceleration partly to high fuel prices and energy security concerns, alongside the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard, BEV tax concessions, expanding charging infrastructure and a far broader range of affordable electrified models. ⁶

The September data echoed this pattern: electric vehicle sales jumped 117.7 per cent year-on-year, while petrol vehicle sales declined 36.2 per cent and diesel deliveries fell 18.4 per cent, according to the FCAI/EVC figures reported by 7NEWS. FCAI chief executive Tony Weber has described the market change as a significant structural realignment, observing that Australia's open market allows new entrants to compete on price, technology and design — an offer Australian buyers are, on the evidence of the 2026 sales data, increasingly taking up. ²⁶