The week in perspective

Policy dominated the week of 5 to 11 October 2026, with the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard review required to begin before the end of 2026 looming over the industry. Toyota Australia is lobbying for a more pragmatic, realistic light commercial vehicle target, warning of price pressure on diesel models such as the HiLux from 2027, while sales vice-president John Pappas reiterated diesel's role for regional buyers, with nearly 54 per cent of HiLux and LandCruiser purchases made outside major cities. Mazda, carrying the largest first-year liability, said repeal would slow but not reverse EV demand.

September VFACTS data confirmed a structural realignment. Battery-electric vehicles took 24.2 per cent of the market and outsold petrol for a second straight month per FCAI data, Chinese-built vehicles again outsold Japanese and Thai imports combined, and NRMA Insurance reported EV quote requests up 72 per cent year on year. CarExpert estimated the overall market would have contracted 5.2 per cent if BYD and Geely were excluded. Meanwhile, Toyota expects a record final quarter, targeting more than 220,000 full-year sales and a 31st consecutive title, with supply rather than demand the constraint amid three to six-month wait times.

Regulation and safety also shaped the week. CPA Australia's 28 September Treasury submission proposes that binding dealer orders count as the qualifying commitment for the electric car discount, with a six to 12-month delivery safe harbour, as draft legislation shifts vehicles over $75,000 to a 25 per cent FBT rate from 1 April 2027 and all eligible vehicles from 1 April 2029; Treasury has given no introduction date. The unrated sixth-generation Toyota RAV4 awaits fourth-quarter Euro/ANCAP testing, and OzCar entered voluntary administration, closing four NSW sites and shedding 90 jobs following September 2026 NSW Fair Trading disciplinary action.